The world is bracing for another potential climate crisis as the chances of a 'super El Niño' event increase. This phenomenon, characterized by a significant rise in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, particularly in the Niño3.4 region, has the potential to cause widespread disruption and record-breaking temperatures. With forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) aligning, the signs are ominous.
The ECMWF's latest prediction is particularly concerning, with over half of their models suggesting temperatures exceeding 2.5C by autumn. This would be a 'historically strong event', according to Johnson, and could surpass the current peak of 2.7C recorded in 1877. However, it's important to note that this earlier data was based on limited observations, leaving room for uncertainty.
The last 'very strong' El Niño occurred in 2015-2016, resulting in extreme weather events worldwide. It caused catastrophic drought and famine in Asia, Brazil, and Africa, leading to millions of deaths, while also producing severe flooding in Peru. The impact of El Niño is significant, typically boosting global average temperatures by 0.2C due to the extra heat in the eastern Pacific.
Liz Stephens, a professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading, warns that we may see record global temperatures next year, especially if this El Niño event is strong. The 2023/24 El Niño already contributed to the hottest year on record, and its effects are likely to be far-reaching.
While some regions may experience more direct weather impacts, such as flooding in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, the disruption to global weather patterns will be widespread. The El Niño is expected to suppress Atlantic tropical storms, leading to a quieter hurricane season in the Atlantic, which could have unintended consequences for Central America due to reduced rainfall.
Additionally, there is a heightened risk of drought and wildfires in parts of Australia, Indonesia, and the northern regions of South America. This could result in a decline in agriculture and global food stocks, potentially exacerbating food security issues. The potential for such a powerful El Niño event serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance of our climate system and the need for proactive measures to mitigate its impacts.
